Into the Bit

If it weren’t for Bettin and Sweatin, I wouldn’t have had a winner at Del Mar yesterday. I had a couple of horses run 2nd. I went mainly to bet Gold Aly, and bet him I did. So when Bettin and Sweatin won the 8th race, I was halfway home. Before that I had a small trifecta and a couple of exactas and when Gold Aly went off in the 7th I had all my profits, plus my original stake bet on him. At 7/1 It would have been a nice score, but he ran 2nd a length.
I considered going up the mountain to play poker or blackjack in Central City or Blackhawk today, but looking back at yesterday’s races and the way I handicapped them I think I’ve got a chance to come back. I formed up the races pretty good, making a few minor miscalculations that could have gone either way. I’ll give it another try today, but will have to do it with a small bankroll after hitting Gold Aly pretty hard yesterday.
I lost ground in the Del Mar Handicapping Contest by forgetting to bet the race yesterday. I’m in 739th place now after not betting Bettin and Sweatin yesterday. I got pretty pumped up when I saw Gold Aly in at 15/1 on the morning line, and it slipped my mind.
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My first good attempt to handicap Del Mar didn’t go so well. Still I think the track played fairly, but I’ve got some tweaking to do to my handicap. I’ll try it again today though, even though I’m considering going back to Arapahoe Park this afternoon and taking a shot at that. I can’t see it being much tougher than Del Mar.

Race one at Del Mar is a $32,000 Claimer for fillies and mares 4 years old and up at a mile over the Polytrack. Beyla looks tough in here today. She just won a $40,000 claimer on the turf, and has two wins and a place in 4 outs on synthetic tracks. She won’t be much of a price and has a tendency to bounce a little bit so I can’t bet much on this race. Bartok’s Bling won at this level last out, and I’ll use Tanzanite if I lose my mind and bet more than a couple of dollars on this race.

The second race is a $25,000 Maiden Claimer for 3 year olds and up at 6 furlongs over the Polytrack. I liked one yesterday that needed to return to his form in the first time out to win (Credibility $10.20). That’s the case today for Anatolian Gold. If he returns to his form as a first time starter he wins this race. Del Mar may be the place for horses to do that this year, so we’ll give Anatolian Gold a try today. Jerry Hollendorfer goes back to Rafael Bejarano today on Aflleet’s Design. He’ll be favored, and these two have won 38% when they’ve combined at Del Mar so far this meet. Highly Unusual drops in from $40,000 claiming and has a shot in here today.

Race 3 is the 3rd running of the California Dreamin’ Handicap with a $125,000 purse for 3 year old and up Cal Breds at a mile and one sixteenth over the Del Mar turf course. It looks like a tough day to try to beat the favorites Mr. Wolverine looks hard to beat today. He finished 4th a length in a grade I last out in June. He comes off the layoff pretty good and I’ll take him in here. Epic Power looks a clear cut 2nd, and I’ll use Bold Chieftan third.

The 4th is an Allowance / Optional Claimer for $25,000 for Cal Bred fillies and mares, 3 years old and up which have never won $7,500 other than, or are non-winners of two, or are in for the $25,000 Claiming Price. They’ll go a mile and one sixteenth on the Polytrack. Smooth Performer is another favorite that looks tough off of one race. Two races back she runs second a head in the Hollywood Oaks with a 94 Beyer. She tried the grass after that and didn’t look too good. I can’t bet these favorites all day, so I’ll try to beat her off that one good race, but I don’t know how good of an idea it is. I’m going to try Real Lift. She gets in with 10 wins by virtue of the $25,000 claiming tag. She doesn’t have the big figures, but she just wins, including 5 of 7 on synthetic surfaces. I’ll try Lighten Up Rule for the show.

Race 5 is a Maiden Special Weights at a mile and one sixteenth. There’s a bunch of pace in this race so I’m looking for someone to come off the pace. I think I’ll try Educated Risk. At 15/1 he looks like he could catch these if they all go to the lead. If they set a smart pace and don’t go too fast on the front end, Ginobili has a shot to hang on. I’ll use Rumba Along in 3rd.

The 6th is an Allowance / Optional Claimer for $62,500 for 3 year olds and up which have never won $7,500 twice other than, have never won two races, or are in for the $62,500 claiming tag. They’ll go 6 1/2 furlongs over the Polytrack. Rouge Scholar ran a 109 Beyer last out at Churchill Downs to win by 6 lengths in a $50,000 Claimer. Cody Autry claimed him and now brings him out to Del Mar. Cody Autry had a terrible time last year at Del Mar, and I’m kind of surprised to see him back. He cost me a small fortune last year and I have to pass on him today. His races over other Polytracks at Arlington Park and Keeneland were less than impressive. I’ll go for Men Only in here today. Bilo’s been running against better, getting beat by Street Boss, who came back to win a Grade I last week. I’ll use Six Pack Abs for the show.

The 7th is a Maiden Special Weights race for two year olds at 5 1/2 furlongs over the Polytrack. Gold Aly is a horse I loved in his first start. He was a good price and got beat by a real good one in Candy Lion. I bet The Bat Signal yesterday based on coming in third by 3 in that race, and I can bet Gold Aly based on coming in 5th by 6 today. He’s 15/1 on the morning line and will determine if I win or lose today most likely. He had a quick 3 furlong work last out, and gets lasix for the first time today. I can use Snapshot 2nd based on my strategy of betting the horses the Wygods keep to race, rather than sell when they breed them. I’ll use Gato Go Win in the show spot.

The eighth is a $12,500 claimer for 3 year olds and up, non-winners of two at six furlongs over the Polytrack. Betttin and Sweatin had a rough out as the beaten favorite last time losing by over 20 lengths. I can bet a horse that has a terrible out like that if they bring him back quickly. Obviously something went wrong, but it’s usually not with the horse’s health if they come back soon enough. The Unclean Spirit gets the blinkers off and shortens up a little today at the same level he ran well the last two outs. For The House threw in a clunker in the last out too, but had a little more rest than Bettin and Sweatin, I’ll look for Jack Van Berg to have a good day though.

Hard to bet against the unbeaten Zenyatta, but depending on how the 7th race goes, I’ll bet Tough Tiz’s Sis at a little price and skip the rest of the day, as I’ll either be broke or rich after the 7th.

Good Luck;

Ron

I haven’t been betting the Del Mar meet this year. I’ve always loved Del Mar, but after the install of the Polytrack last year I was soured on betting it. I’ve been paying a little attention to see how it was going to play, and I still don’t think I have it down yet, but I’ve got to jump in sometime so I’ll start today. After a decent start in the Del Mar free handicapping contest I’ve fallen off a little bit not hitting a winner all week so far. I’m currently in 663rd place out of just under 6,000 participants. Today’s race is the sixth so I’ll see what it looks like when we get there.

Race 1 today is a $20,000 Claimer for three year olds at 1 1/16th miles over the Del Mar Polytrack. Change Your Mask is a short price morning line favorite, and for good reason I think. He’s dropping in from a $50,000 claimer where he ran well on the lead. Before that he won a Starter Allowance race at Golden Gate Fields. Those races were on the grass, but he’s been in the money three of six times on synthetic surfaces and looks like a winner in here to me. If I had to find one that could beat him I’d use Credibility. His first start was a blazing 88 Beyer figure, but he’s yet to run back to that. He’s been over matched in Stakes and Allowance races, and ran poorly in his first off the layoff early last month. He’s 2nd off the layoff today, and if he improves back to that maiden effort he could win this one today. I like Okie Dokie Petey underneath these two.

Race 2 is a $32,000 Maiden Claimer for 3 year old and up fillies and mares at 6 1/2 furlongs over the Polytrack. I like a couple that could be a price in here today. The first is Miss Lydia. She’s been running against better until her last time out when she ran at this level and proved she belonged here. She too is 2nd off the layoff and eligible to improve quite a bit. Savoir Farrah is a nicely bred filly making her first start and I think she may be able to run a little bit. I’ll use her on top as well as Miss Lydia. Morning line favorite Enchanting Moment doesn’t do a lot for me. Doug O’Neill is on 12% first off the claim, but this one is certainly capable of winning this one at a short price.

The 3rd at Del Mar is an $80,000 Maiden Claimer for two year olds at 5 1/2 furlongs over the Cushion Track. This is an nice two year old race, that wouldn’t be a claimer at most tracks. The Bat Signal is in for $70,000 and ran a really nice race against Candy Lion, who I think is one of the Best two year olds I’ve seen this year. He had the lead at the top of the stretch and gave way down the lane. That race and this one have a number of horses who are nominated for the Del Mar Futurity later in the meet. There are a couple of first time starters in here who might be something. Yonkers Joe is a nicely bred colt by Empire Maker out of a Storm Bird mare running for Bob Baffert. I’ll use Star Redeemer also. He’s another first timer nominated for the futurity who may be able to run a little.

Race 4 is the first flight of the $75,000 Cerf Handicap for three year old and up fillies and mares who are non-winners of a $50,000 Sweepstakes since March 1 other than state bred. They will go six furlongs on the Polytrack. I would really like Tizsweetdreams in here, but there’s a lot of speed in this race and I’m afraid she’ll get hooked on the front end. At 6 furlongs I think I’ll go with her though. The wild card in here is Woodland City who looks to like to run on the front end, but hasn’t been on the Polytrack, and hasn’t run in a year. I’ll use Highland Torree 2nd who has already run down Tizsweetdreams once at this distance and is proven on synthetic surfaces. I’ll use Woodland City in here as John Sadler gets them ready pretty good when he takes over the training duties and off the layoff.

Race 5 is a Maiden Special Weights race for Cal Bred two year olds at 6 furlongs over the Polytrack. Teamwork is 12/1 on the morning line. I like to bet these first time starters that are bred by the Wygods, that they keep to race. Clifford Sise wins 15% first time out, and is winning at an incredible pace of 57% at the Del Mar meet. This one’s nominated for the Del Mar Futurity as well, and once again…is 12/1 today. Cookin Expresso is also nominated to the futurity, but didn’t look too good last time out. He ran 9th in a field of 11 so I’ll skip him today.

The sixth race is the Del Mar Handicapping contest race, so I need to get this one right. It’s an $80,000 Allowance/ Optional Claimer for 3 year old fillies which have never won $7,500 other than or are non-winners of two races, or are in for the $80,000 tag at a mile over the Del Mar Turf Course. I’m going to try Barbara’s Love on the turf today. I’d prefer her to be on the Polytrack, but I think she can be effective on the turf. I’ll use Cassablanca with Gomez and Hollendorfer who are winning at 40% on the meet and 38% for the year together. I’ll use Lemon Punch with these two.

The seventh is the second flight of the $75,000 Cerf Handicap. Again it’s for fillies and mares 3 years old and up which are non-winners of a $50,000 Sweepstakes other than state bred since March 1st. They’ll go six furlongs over the Polytrack today. Unspoken Word has bounced around little stake races between Northern and Southern California for last only winning one of them. Jerry Hollendorfer has found a new rider though in Garrett Gomez and their winning percentage is tough to argue with. Tizzy’s Tune runs well off the layoff and has a shot in here I think. She drops back in to a sprint today and I think she’s got an excellent chance in here. I’ll use her on top a little too. Fleetheart also goes back to sprinting and drops out of a Grade I event to where she probably belongs.

The eighth is a $10,000 Claimer for 4 year old and up fillies and mares at a mile over the Polytrack. Galicia looks pretty good, and she should as the morning line favorite. She’s been winning up north, and has run in the money every time she tries a synthetic track. William Morey has two wins at the meet, and has had this horse and lost her at the claim box. He’s gotten her back and must feel she’s in the right spot today. Lupita’s Lucky Angel drops way down and gets blinkers and could get a piece of this race. I’ll use Zee Topper third in here.

Good Luck;

Ron