Into the Bit

If it weren’t for Bettin and Sweatin, I wouldn’t have had a winner at Del Mar yesterday. I had a couple of horses run 2nd. I went mainly to bet Gold Aly, and bet him I did. So when Bettin and Sweatin won the 8th race, I was halfway home. Before that I had a small trifecta and a couple of exactas and when Gold Aly went off in the 7th I had all my profits, plus my original stake bet on him. At 7/1 It would have been a nice score, but he ran 2nd a length.
I considered going up the mountain to play poker or blackjack in Central City or Blackhawk today, but looking back at yesterday’s races and the way I handicapped them I think I’ve got a chance to come back. I formed up the races pretty good, making a few minor miscalculations that could have gone either way. I’ll give it another try today, but will have to do it with a small bankroll after hitting Gold Aly pretty hard yesterday.
I lost ground in the Del Mar Handicapping Contest by forgetting to bet the race yesterday. I’m in 739th place now after not betting Bettin and Sweatin yesterday. I got pretty pumped up when I saw Gold Aly in at 15/1 on the morning line, and it slipped my mind.

Race 1 is a Maiden Special Weights race for Cal Bred 3 year olds and upward going 6 furlongs over the Polytrack. Don’t Forget Muq is a first timer with a string of bullet works. The last was a :45.1 from the gate over the Polytrack which was the fastest of 55 half mile works that day. Stathy has shown he can run on the turf with a second place finish and a nice 83 Beyer figure. Some of these Unusual Heat horses can run on both the turf and the synthetic surfaces and this one may be able to as well. Already Wild also has a couple of nice works for a first timer and could be tough in here.

Race 2 is a $62,500 claimer for 3 year olds at six furlongs over the Polytrack. Storm Brave held off Professnl Courtesy at 6 1/2 furlongs last time out at Hollywood by 3/4 of a length. Shortening up half a furlong should help him hold the lead a little. The question really though is which one will like the Polytrack better. I think it will be Storm Brave. I’m going to try a long shot in Nene today though. He’s first off the layoff and will need to improve some, but he comes off the layoff well and is due to improve.

The third is a $40,000 claimer for four year olds and up at a mile and one eighth over the Turf Course. Grafton is 2nd off the layoff after running behind The Big One last out. He gets a 400 Tomlinson rating on the turf. The Big On had a tough last out laying 2nd a head the last two calls. That kind of finish takes a lot out of a horse and I look for The Big One to bounce today. I’ll use Soupy in the show spot.

The fourth race is the Del Mar Contest race and I really need to pick a winner in this one to stay close. It’s a $40,000 Claimer for 3 year old fillies at 6 1/2 furlongs over the Polytrack.
Conventional wisdom is you drop horses in class to get a win at Del Mar. Carbella won her first four races even though two were at California Fair meets and two were maiden races. She was disqualified after winner her first time out, and came back to break her maiden on the 2nd attempt. Winning the first time out tells me she can come off the layoff and trainer Adam Kitchinman’s 27% winners off the long layoff helps too. It’s hard to compare the class of some of these races, but she’s made more money in less races than any of these, and that is the true measure of class. I’ll use Proud Garrison second, and Thunder and Ice third in here.

Race 5 is a $25,000 Claimer for 4 year olds and up at 6 furlongs over the Polytrack. Foul Play looks like he’s got a good shot in this race today. Jack’s Kid has a shot as well and I’ll use Return of the King in the show spot.

The 6th race is Maiden Special Weights race for two year old fillies at 5 1/2 furlongs over the Cushion Track. I’m going to try a first timer at a price in Magic Roberta. Paulo Lobo wins at 19% with first time starters and this one’s well bred with some decent works. Montana Fields was narrowly beaten last out as the favorite and is also well bred by Pulpit out of an El Prado mare. Hollendorfer and Bejarano work well together giving this one a good shot. I’ll try Baffert at 12/1 just because you have to bet him at a price and Lu Baton is 12/1 on the morning line.

The 7th today is a $50,000 Claimer for 4 year olds and upward at a mile over the Polytrack. Wild Buddy tries the synthetic track for the first time in 67 lifetime starts. He’s a hard knocking who gives his best effort every time out. If he takes to the track he’s got a good shot in here. Tice hasn’t raced in over a year but was going very well before the long layoff. It’s hard to know what went wrong with him, but it’s Baffert again and if he’s anywhere near as good as he used to be he’s got a shot. Super Strut has a little bit of a chance if things don’t work out for the other two.

Race 8 is the Grade I John C. Mabee Handicap for fillies and mares three years old and up, at a mile and one eighth over the Turf Course. Black Mambo gets Gomez up and is coming off a winning effort in a Grade II at Hollywood Park last out. Foxysong comes out of that race too but is 2nd off the layoff today. I’ll use Ransom Captive in the show spot.

I’ll pass on the last race today and call it a day.

Good Luck;

Ron

Tags: California Horse Racing, Del Mar, Horse race betting, Horse Racing, horse racing odds, Horse Racing results

This entry was posted on Sunday, August 3rd, 2008 at 1:12 pm and is filed under Horse Racing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.