Friday Night’s Hollywood Park Card
I had a couple of winners yesterday. I bet all of the profits back on Nochangenweather in the two year old race in the last. He ran 5th and I broke even. I’ll get that back when he goes a little farther. He’s a big colt with a long stride who needs to go farther than 4 1/2 furlongs. He got beat up pretty good from both sides coming out of the gate, and was way back early with no chance. He just got nosed out for 4th, and I’ll be waiting for a longer race to come along for Nochangenweather.
We’ve got a 7:05 pm start at Hollywood tonight. I’m going to give closers a little more credit tonight especially in the later races because I think as the Cushion Track cools off it slows down a little bit. It’s one theory anyway and I’ll try to prove or disprove it a little tonight.
Tonight’s card starts off with a $25,000 claimer for three year old and up fillies and mares, non-winners of two races at 7 furlongs over the Cushion Track. It’s going to be hard for me to bet Tootsnmoneybags tonight, but I think I’m going to. The speed figures are way below everyone else, and I don’t particularly care for horses coming from the east coast first time in California. I’m not big fan of Pennsylvania breds, or 3 year olds running against older horses. Philly Park, and Delaware Park aren’t places where the big horses usually come from. All that said, the horse that looks cheap has made more money in four races than all but one of these. Most of them in 10 or more races. Tootsnmoneybags has a win and three seconds it three outs. I’m not big on weights, but this one gets a big weight allowance at 109 pounds. The breedings good here, and Clifford Sise has had this one a few months it looks like. He’s 31% off the layoff, and this one has been off since October. She’s been favored in 3 of 4 and was 2nd favorite in the other, and I’ve just talked myself into betting her. I think she’ll be more than the 5/1 morning line and I’ll take a shot. I have a feeling she will either win, or lose big. Shebang and Kilmartin’s Hall look like the other two to use with her.
Race 2 is the 1st running of The Lawndale, a Stake Race for fillies and mares four years old and upward who have not won a Sweepstake for $60,000 or more since October 2007 for a $62,000 purse at 6 furlongs over the turf course. Missvinski gets blinkers on today and looks tough even coming off a long layoff. The six furlongs on the turf is right in her wheel house. She’s 3 for 3 at the distance and has been working well. She has two outs in North America and one in California, so I can’t use that for an excuse not to bet her. The horses she was running against in Grade I’s at Ascot and Deauville are no joke. She’s got some class on this field. Bahama Mama started her 4 year old campaign nicely winning first time in North America but was disqualified for drifting out. She should be in a little better shape today, and shortening up 1/2 a furlong only makes her tougher. Red Diadem was coming off a layoff in the same race and came up the rail, but was outkicked running against a slight rail bias.
The third is a $25,000 claimer for 4 year olds and up at 1 1/16th on the Cushion Track. When I first looked at the third race I was fell in love with Gold Trim. He loves synthetic tracks, and Hollywood in particular. Then I noticed there is just no pace in this race for him to run at. He ran well at Santa Anita into the front speed bias and I still think he can win this one, but I just can’t form the race up in my mind where he wins it easy. Coronado’s Pride may be the only front speed if he returns to his form from a couple of years ago. He’s 2nd off a year layoff and just may be able to if he takes to the synthetic surface in his first attempt on it. He alone may be able to provide Gold Trim enough pace to run at. I think the track will favor the closers and will bet it just that way. Like New Money could stalk the pace and be close at the end, but he ended up 2 lengths behind Gold Trim at Santa Anita last out where stalking speed was a real plus.
The 4th is $25,000 Maiden Claimer for three year olds and up at 6 furlongs over the Cushion Track. All About Larry will benefit from being 2nd off the layoff, the extra half furlong, the 5 lb weight allowance, and the way the track will play for closers at Hollywood vs Santa Anita. That should be enough to put him over the top today. The five year old, lightly raced is another favorite that should do well tonight. I’m looking for a price though, and I think Heather’s Echo’s first start as a 4 year old may be an improvement over his three year old races provided he can run off the layoff. He hasn’t shown an ability to before, but it’s a possibility that is outweighed by the 12/1 morning line, and Victor Espinoza getting the mount.
I’ll use him a little bit in here. Comedy is Magic is the perfect example of improvement from 3 year old to 4 year old after a long layoff. If he improves again he could be right there as well, also at a little price.
Race 5 is a $40,000 Claimer for Fillies and Mares 4 years old and upward at 6 furlongs on the Turf Course. I have mixed emotions on this race. I loved No Ka Oi last time out, and she won at a decent $17.00 price. She got the perfect trip though. She hit the front right at the wire, and was going an extra half furlong. They went pretty quick, and I just don’t see the same result at 6 furlongs tonight. At 7/2 tonight I won’t bet too heavily against her though. I liked her because I saw her get in trouble a few times, and I think she might tonight too with some front speed in this race, and a big field under the lights she could have traffic problems. I like a couple at a price though. In fact, I really like Stellina at 20/1 on the morning line. Her three trips on the grass were all Maiden Special Weights races, one of which was where she broke her maiden right here on this course at Hollywood. She looks like she needed the race in March, and should be good to go. Martin Jones wins 22% going synthetic to turf, 18% off the layoff, and 29% with a $5.54 ROI in claiming races. I’m going for the long shot. I’ll use another decent price horse with her in Canonita. Her Trainer, Ron Sticka has sent two out off the long layoff, winning with one that paid $26.20. The works look good with a nice 1:11 flat at six furlongs on April 13th. I’ll use Foxy Games with these two, and throw in No Ka Oi for old times sake.
The 6th is a Maiden Special Weights race for Cal Bred maidens 3 years old and up at 6 furlongs. Doug O’Neill’s the leading Trainer and sends out Dr. Skimming. He and Rafael Bejarano are winning at 33% for the meet and 26% for the year together. Warrington is a nice looking 4 year old first timer for Rafael Bacerrra, and Ribald is a nice looking 3 year old first time starter, so I’ll use him underneath.
Race 7 is an Allowance race for 3 year olds and upward which have never won $7,500 other than Maiden, Claiming or Starter or have never won two races. They’ll go six furlongs on the Cushion Track. This is the shortest race Major Pleasure’s ever run. If you look at the Tomlinson rating for the Distance he gets a 419 at 6 furlongs. This may be his distance I’m thinking. Exhale was a big price in 2006 and looked like he was worth it breaking his maiden with a 105 Beyer as a three year old. That would have put him in the class with Big Brown this year as far as 3 year old Beyer Figures. These two look much the best. I’ll try the Cal Bred even though Exhale is second off the layoff. I’ll use Street Lights under neath, also second off the layoff.
The last is a $25,000 Maiden Claimer for fillies and mares three years old and up at 6 furlongs over The Cushion Track. Titan Queen is 6/1 on the morning line and looks good to me. She’s by Tiz Now out of a Seeking the Gold mare. Trainer Melody Conlon wins 30% first off the claim, and 37% with maiden claimers. I’ll use Burnt with her and along with Go Cardinal Gal, and My Sister Laureen.
Good Luck;
Ron
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