Friday Night’s Hollywood Card
I was way off on Hollywood Park yesterday. It looked to be a fairly chalky card, but there were some decent payers. Despite the good prices several people took down the Pick 6, but I don’t know how they did it. You would have had to almost wheel two races with a 9/1 winner and another with a 41/1 winner. Tonight’s card won’t have the distraction of a large carryover pool so we can concentrate on just picking some winners.
Race #1 is a $25,000 Claiming Race for fillies and mares three years old and up, non-winners of two races at a mile and one sixteenth over the Cushion Track. Discover Dolly just broke her Maiden at 5 years old. Normally I wouldn’t bet one like this but she didn’t run at 2-3-or 4. Her first three races were sprints and she ran 5th by 3 1/2 all of them (by 3 3/4’s in one). Once she stretched out to a route she looked good. She was squeezed at the start last out and still came on to win by a head. Trainer Jorge Gutierrez has combined with rider Arambula for 25% wins with a $10.65 ROI at the meet so far and they get a seven pound apprentice allowance again today. There’s just not much speed in this race so if Canonita goes for the lead and gets it uncontested she could be trouble if she can slow the pace. E Bee Girl may try to go with her but I don’t see it working out well for her.
Race 2 is a $25,000 Maiden Claimer for fillies and mares three years old and up at 6 1/2 furlongs over the Cushion Track. Warren’s Cookie has been knocking on the door a little while. I think she graduates tonight after a couple of unlucky trips recently. Party Punch ran just behind Warren’s Cookie last out and there’s no reason to think she can’t do it again. Dice Afare is a nicely bred Jumpstart filly. Bejarano and Cerin are winning at 33% for the meet so she’s go a good shot as well.
Race 3 is an $8,000 Claimer for fillies and mares four years old and up at 6 furlongs over the main track. Hotitude is second off the layoff after running a decent 5th by 4 1/4 lengths in a race with a couple of these in here 2008 debute. I’d look for some improvement in her 2nd out of the year. A little improvement should be enough to beat this field. Early Anna gets the blinkers back on tonight after taking them off running under the lights last out. Spy Aly had some traffic problems leaving the gate last time and may light the board at a price.
The 4th race at Hollywood tonight is a $25,000 Maiden Claimer for three year olds and up at 6 furlongs over the Cushion Track. Joshua’s Dream makes his first start for Trainer Eric Guillot and The Southern Equine Stables. They spend a lot of money at auctions, and after spending $55,000 for this one, they start him out in a $25,000 Maiden Claimer. He must not have panned out as expected, but he may be good enough for these. Guillot wins 25% with Maiden Claiming first time starters with a $5.45 ROI. That’s the same percentage as Brian Koriner wins with first time Maiden Claimers. He sends out Tigley, a Cee’s Tizzy gelding and he wins maiden claimers overall at 29%. He and jockey Joe Talamo have combined to win at 38% for the Hollywood meet. Dynaquake beat Magic Mike last out, who came back to win the other day and gets the blinkers off.
Race 5 is a $25,000 Claimer for four year olds and up sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on the Cushion Track. Cape Town King comes off a year layoff and runs for the first time from the Jeff Mullins Stable. Mullins claimed this one last out for $62,500, benched him for a year, and now brings him back for $25,000. Mullins wins 27% first off the claim because he’s very sharp about spotting horses in the right race, and wins 25% of claiming races overall. Gray Black N White was a beaten favorite at higher levels the last two out, and should also be in about the right spot for a good performance. With all the speed in this race Legendary Mud may have a shot to come off the pace and get an award today.
The sixth race is a Maiden Special Weights Race for Cal bred 3 year olds and up at a mile over the Turf Course. Ginobili just missed last Friday night getting beat a nose at 6 furlongs. His form looks like he quits, but he’s not badly bred for a route, and he’s well bred for the grass. Got Free gets a rider change to Aaron Gryder and gets blinkers on tonight. He’s run fairly well on the turf and has a shot tonight. Unvarnished is second off the layoff and could also make some noise in this one.
Race 7 is an Allowance / Optional Claimer for three year old and up fillies and mares which have never won $7,500 twice other than, or are non-winners of three, or are in for the claiming tag of $62,500 at 6 furlongs over the Cushion Track. I like the longest shot on the morning line in here today. Cotton Bay, at 10/1 in a 6 horse field looks very interesting to me. The 5 year old mare was on her way as a two year old breaking her maiden first out, then running 3rd in a $100,000 stake the second time out. She went to the bench for nearly two years after that and reappeared at Del Mar last year. She runs 3rd in an allowance race first off the layoff, and comes back and wins an allownce second off the layoff. After almost another year off she debutes at Hollywood Park at 16/1 in an allowance and runs poorly. Bafferts wins 2nd off the layoff at 24%. This thing ran on that awful Polytrack at Del Mar which makes her Beyer Figures look very low. I’ll watch the board a little bit on this one, because if she wins I think she’ll get some action. I think this one is primed for an upset, and I will be betting on this one pretty good. I’ll use Highland Torree at a little price with her, and Brendolyn who avoids the conditions by running for the Claiming Tag.
The last race tonight is a $25,000 Maiden Claimer for three year olds and up at 6 furlongs over the Cushion Track. Peeka Buddah is an automatic play for me as a first time starter that sold for more than 20 times the sire’s stud fee. Brian Koriner has those big numbers with maiden claimers and first time maiden claimers I spoke of earlier and gets the nod in here. Cavanaugh is 2nd off the layoff and has been dropping in class steadily. This may be the right level for him I’ll have to use Kerzner too. Janet Armstrong is 40% taking the blinkers off, and 33% off the layoff.
Good Luck;
Ron
Tags: Bob Baffert, Daily Racing Form, Hollywood Park, Horse race betting, Horse Racing, horse racing odds, Horse Racing results