Into the Bit

Yesterday just missed being a very good day at Hollywood. Wing Forward ran second a head in the second, and Miguel’s Mascot ran second farther back. If either or both of those two could have come up with a win it would have been a couple thousand dollar day. As it was it was profitable, but not great. The one I liked best all day, California Flag went off at almost 6/1, and when Chicks Rule scractched, out that left longshot Love Special for me to bet with that good grass breeding at almost 10/1. The other two were around 4 or 5 to 1 and it would have been nice to get one or both of them. We’ll try it again tonight though. With the 4th of July Holiday on Friday, they’ll run a rare Thursday night card this evening with first post at 7:00 pm Hollywood time.

Race 1 is a $40,000 Maiden Claimer for two year olds at 5 1/2 furlongs over the Cushion Track. Albacore Bob is one of two in here going for Molly Pearson today. This one’s been beaten by the same horse, Big Bug Creek in each of his past two races at Turf Paradise. The first time was in an Allowance race, and the second in a stakes race. He improved considerably from his first to second start, and a repeat of the second out should win tonights race. Kitty Caliente is one of these nice Unusual Heat horses Barry Abrams gets ahold and he may be something. I’ll use Spinco Bob with these two, the first time starter by Cee’s Tizzy. It could be a Bob exacta so I’ll box these three.

Race 2 is an Allowance race at 6 furlongs on the turf course for Cal Bred fillies and mares three years old and up which have never won $7,500 other than, or are non-winners of 2 races. Bea’s Cee won easily to break her maiden under the lights last time out. She tries the turf today and isn’t especially well bred for it, but I think she’s good enough to overcome it. America’s Friend is bred for the turf, and will be tough in here. Christina’s Heat is another Unusual Heat horse who likes the grass and cuts back in distance today.

The third race today is a $25,000 Maiden Claimer for 3 year olds and up at 1 1/16th miles over the Cushion Track. Hugh O’Neill was a $70,000 purchase back in 2004 and has been very lightly raced since then. He looked like he was going to be a very talented youngster for a while getting some play in the Cal Cup Juvenile after just missing breaking his maiden in a couple of Maiden Special Weight events. Three years later he’s still struggling to break his maiden, and has a chance to do it tonight at this level. He was 75/1 at $40,000 last out and ran a decent 6th. He’ll have to improve, but may in his third out of the meet. Massive Attack takes a small drop from $32,000 and also has a shot in here. Sir Dynamite was another very expensive horse that hasn’t quite panned out, but he’ll be tough tonight as well.

Race 4 is a bottom level claiming race for $8,000 four year olds and up at 6 furlongs over the Cushion Track. I like this one to pay a little bit of a price. I’m going to use Dark Past in here. You have to go back a ways to find his good races, but he seems to have gone wrong just after being claimed, which coincided with the Santa Anita track problems. He laid off a while after that and improved in his March race at Santa Anita. He laid off again and ran poorly at Hollywood last month first off the layoff, but is eligible to improve off that race. At 12/1 on the morning line, I’ll take a good shot at him tonight. Caddymaster is also second off the layoff and should run well. Preachintothechoir should be a factor as well tonight.

Race 5 is the innaugural running of the Ferdinand Handicap. This one is for three year olds and up at a mile and one sixteenth over the Cushion Track. Tissy Fit’s been running against a little tougher crowd that the others I think, and has fared pretty well. Big Booster beat him by two last out and goes in one of the “Win and Your In’ Breeder’s Cup races at Monmouth Park this weekend. Two races back he beat Mostacolli Mort pretty well, who came back to win a nice one last week. He’s used to a little longer distance, but could take these today with the right pace set up. Charmo was a beaten favorite last out on the turf, and has also been keeping tough company. If he takes to the synthetic track he’ll be tough. Dilemma beat Charmo last out and there’s no reason to think he won’t be right with him tonight.

The 6th race is a $25,000 Maiden Claimer for three year old and up fillies and mares at 6 furlongs on the Cushion Track. Classy Bay is an auto play in here selling for over 20 times the stud fee of Whywhywhy. His first out was in the Maiden Special Weights ranks where he ran poorly. John Sadler trains winners at 21% when he drops from Maiden Special Weights to Maiden Claiming, and even though the Maiden Special Weight race in question was at Bay Meadows, I think this one fits here. With the big field this one could be a huge price and even though he comes out of the 15 hole I like her at a price. Burnt is over due to break her maiden. I’ve been on this one quite a while and will use her in here tonight. I’ll also use Dreams Afleet as well as a few others under the big long shot Classy Bay.

The 7th race is an Allowance / Optional Claimer for $62,500 for 3 year olds and up which have never won $7,500 twice, other than, or have never won three races, or are in for the claiming tag. They’ll go 6 furlongs over the turf course tonight. Worchester is well bred for the grass with a nice 379 Tomlinson rating, but he may have a problem getting to the speed of Ron Bob and Dave tonight. It kind of depends on how the turf course is playing, but if it’s hot and dry the speed should hold up. I’ll use Worchester and Ron Bob and Dave in a big exacta box, and throw T’aint War Sir in with them.

The last race tonight is a $25,000 Maiden Claimer for three year olds and upward at a mile and one sixteenth over the Cushion Track. Verypq has been very lightly raced for a 5 year old. He’s was the beaten favorite last time out, and took a little layoff. Trainer Peter Levine however is 43% coming off a layoff, and this missed the break last out. He stretches out which shouldn’t hurt, and this one’s 8/1 on the morning line. Major Trouble got beat by one that looked good last out in Magic Mike. He’s a little inconsistent, but if he runs well he’ll be right there. In Contrast Athernry is very consistent and it wouldn’t be a big surprise if he won it.

Good Luck;

Ron

Tags: 4th of July, Breeder's Cup, Hollywood Park, Horse race betting, Horse Racing, Horse Racing handicapping, Horse Racing results, horse racing tips, Win and You're In

This entry was posted on Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 at 10:17 am and is filed under Horse Racing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.